General election latest: Latest poll has more bad news for the Tories - as Labour accused of 'humiliating' Abbott (2024)

By Dr Hannah Bunting, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

The prime minister has taken a defensive approach, signalling the Conservatives' worry about being so far behind in the polls.

Sir Keir Starmer's visits show the scale of their ambition and highlight Labour's awareness of the challenge they face. They need to gain 125 seats to win the smallest possible majority.

Labour ambitious

Labour's visit to nearby Derbyshire Mid in the East Midlands shows the scale of their boldness. They need more than a 16-point swing to take the seat from the Tories, but their recent mayoral wins might mean they are feeling confident about convincing the voters here.

These stops in the Midlands show the regions to be a key battleground between the two main parties. The Conservatives had 76 MPs across the East and West, so it's crucial for their general election fortunes. The extent of Labour's success here could be the difference between them being the largest party or gaining a decisive majority.

The range of seats visited by Sir Keir demonstrate just how ambitious Labour are in their targets. They aren't shying away from places with big Conservative majorities, and kicking off their campaign in Kent tells us they think they can win in regions only Blair managed to conquer.

Labour's eyes on the prize

Eight Conservative-defended seats have had the pleasure of a visit from Sir Keir Starmer, but he has also found time to venture into SNP territory in Scotland. Why? Well, Labour are also taking aim at John Swinney and his party's troubles.

Every seat Labour can win off the SNP in Scotland reduces the number they need from the Tories directly in England and Wales for a majority.

The Glasgow constituencies that were once dominated by Labour are key battlegrounds. So, unsurprisingly, the Labour leader chose to head to Glasgow East. This has had significant boundary changes, resulting in an estimated 15% majority for the SNP.

Here is the full breakdown of Sir Keir Starmer's campaign visits so far:

By Dr Hannah Bunting, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

The prime minister has taken a defensive approach, signalling the Conservatives' worry about being so far behind in the polls.

Rishi Sunak's very first campaign stop was Erewash in the East Midlands, a seat that should be considered safe with its 22% Conservative majority, but one he clearly thinks could be vulnerable.

A Labour victory here would be at the cusp between Labour becoming the largest party in a hung parliament or taking an overall majority, if similar levels of voter swing were replicated at a national level.

The last time Labour held Erewash (which has not undergone boundary changes in this cycle) was from 1997 to 2010, under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's leaderships.

Reform threat

In Dover and Deal - where the Conservative Natalie Elphicke defected from the Conservatives to Labour - leader Richard Tice focused on immigration. The decision of Reform's honorary president Nigel Farage not to stand as a candidate in this election was one piece of good news for the Conservatives, at least.

In total, 16 of Mr Sunak's 18 trips were to seats that the Conservatives are defending, 11 of which are vulnerable to Labour based on current polling estimates which suggest a swing of 16 points.

But that hasn't stopped Mr Sunak trying to defend what some might think is now beyond defensible. The most marginal seat he's visited so far is Vale of Glamorgan, where he took a trip to a brewery in Barry. Labour only requires a swing of 2.6 points to win this seat, so it seems like an optimistic majority to defend.

Lib-Dem southern front

The Liberal Democrats are closing in on several seats across the South of England. He visited four key Lib Dem targets, including Chesham and Amersham which has recently had a Liberal Democrat MP for the first time due to theirresounding 2021 by-election victory.

Here is the full breakdown of Rishi Sunak's campaign visits so far:

Rishi Sunak is out on the campaign trail already today, handing out flyers to people on the streets of London.

It's a quieter day for the prime minister than the last few weeks, which have seen him visit vast parts of the UK to push the Conservative cause.

Here are some pics the Conservative Party have sent us...

By Professor Michael Thrasher, Sky News election analyst

The electoral geography of the UK is changing.

Following the recommendations of independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the next UK general election - which Sky News understands will be on 4 July - will be fought on new constituency boundaries, replacing those in operation since 2010.

This is the sixth periodic review to be implemented since the war. The next review is not scheduled until October 2031.

Exploring how this movement of voters affects the political makeup of the House of Commons is a task that Colin Rallings and myself have been doing over the past thirty years following previous boundary adjustments.

There are winners and losers in different parts of the UK - read the full analysis here:

Of course you can.

You might just need to do it a little bit earlier, and by post.

You can watch our explainer on how to do this below:

Derbyshire Police have confirmed they are reviewing allegations of electoral fraud after "concerns around marketing material".

It comes after Tory candidate Robert Largan, who is fighting to keep his High Peak seat, had published a number of campaign materials in the colours of Labour and Reform UK.

Not only this, but the graphics had included the phrases "Labour for Largan" and "Reform for Robert".

However, the first notes: "So many local Labour voters have told me they’re going to vote for me, because they want to keep me as their local MP.

"There have been so many that I'm launching a new Labour for Largan club."

Derbyshire Police said: "We wish to confirm that we have received a number of messages in relation to claims of election fraud, raised due to concerns around marketing material.

"An incident has been created and will be reviewed."

But a spokesman for Mr Largan has denied wrongdoing.

A statement said: "As Mr Largan's social media posts and website make abundantly clear, large numbers of traditional Labour voters have been contacting him to tell him they plan to vote for him, despite him being a Conservative candidate.

"The same goes for Reform supporters. This is because of Mr Largan's strong record of delivery in the High Peak. Therefore, supporters clubs of traditional Labour and Reform voters have been set up, to allow people to tell Mr Largan that they're supporting him.

"These are called Labour for Largan and Reform for Robert. Such supporters clubs are not a new phenomenon.

"It is worth pointing out that all of Mr Largan's election leaflets clearly state that he is the Conservative candidate and are in full compliance with electoral law.

"He is very well known in the High Peak as the local Conservative candidate. His name will appear on the ballot paper as the Conservative candidate.

"Nobody voting in the High Peak could possibly be confused on this point. Those claiming otherwise appear to have a very low opinion of the people of High Peak."

More now from shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper, who has been on the media round today.

Pressed on off-shore processing of asylum seekers, she declined to rule this out or sending them to have their claims processed abroad.

Ms Cooper told the BBC her party would create a border security command "to clear the backlog and to end asylum hotel use, and to put another new returns and enforcement unit in place to actually get the proper returns where people have no right to be here".

She said: "So, your question was might there be other future arrangements and so on?

"Keir has always said we would look at what works and there are different kinds of, I think, the sort of offshore processing arrangements and things that have already been used at different times in the past.

"For example, the Dublin agreement did mean that, under that scheme, some people were returned to France or to Germany or other countries."

When asked if Labour would send asylum seekers who are stuck in the system to another country to have their claims processed, Ms Cooper said: "That's certainly what used to happen as part of the Dublin scheme and we look at what works."

It's 12pm - here's what you need to know as the first full week of campaigning nears an end.

The campaign trail has had a sleepy start today, with politicians instead joining Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips to reflect on the race for the keys to Number 10.

Let us get you up to speed on everything you may have missed today…

• Labour's Bridget Phillipson and Yvette Cooper are in south London for a quick campaign visit;
  
• We haven't yet heard from Ms Phillipson, but the shadow home secretary earlier spoke to Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, where she denied claims that Sir Keir Starmer has promised peerages to former Labour MPs so they stand down to make space for chosen candidates;
• She also said she "assumes" that Diane Abbott will be the Labour candidate for Hackney and Stoke Newington after a row over whether she would be permitted to stand;
• And on the matter of policy, Labour has announced plans to reduce net migration - with Sir Keir accusing the Conservatives of having "repeatedly broken their promises" to get the number down.

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will also be on the campaign trail in London today, though it is unlikely we will hear directly from him;
• However, Health Secretary Victoria Atkins has been chatting with Trevor Phillips, telling him that those defecting from the Conservative Party "had their own reasons" for doing so;
• And the Conservative government has pledged £1bn a year in a bid to increase the number of GP appointments in the UK;
• The Tories say they would build both GP surgeries and community diagnostic centres if they were re-elected to government. The party wants to build 100 new GP surgeries and modernise another 150.

• We're due to hear from the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and Scotland's First Minister John Swinney in Glasgow later on today;
• And the Greens have confirmed that three of the party's election candidates are "no longer going forward" following reports of inappropriate comments.

Here are a couple of other stories that may interest you:

Our essential political podcast,Politics At Jack And Sam's, is going out every week day through the election campaign to bring a short burst of everything you need to know about the day ahead as this election unfolds.

Tap here to follow Politics At Jack At Sam's wherever you get your podcasts.

Stick with us for all the latest throughout the evening.

In January 2023, Rishi Sunak made five promises.

Since then, he and his ministers have rarely missed an opportunity to list them. In case you haven't heard, he promised to:

• Halve inflation
• Grow the economy
• Reduce debt
• Cut NHS waiting lists and times
• Stop the boats.

See below how he is doing on these goals:

By Rhiannon Mills, royal correspondent

The political parties have hit the campaign trail, rolling out their policies - and the odd stunt - to try and get your backing.

But one family that won't be casting a vote is the royals.

So what are the rules about politics and the monarchy?

Let us explain in the link below...